Daily status reports in the media, a global crisis plan and huge emergency budgets. No, this is not about the COVID-19 pandemic. The crises within planetary boundaries should be addressed just as urgently and forcefully, says one of the world’s leading climate scientists and co-creator of the new ‘Planetary Health Check’ initiative, Professor Johan Rockström.

Climate change is often referred to as presenting a “window of opportunity.” A period of time when we still have the opportunity to reverse the trend to avoid a global climate and environmental catastrophe. In theory, this window is roughly 25 years, with climate neutrality by 2050 as the primary goal and several milestones set along the way. The Paris Agreement’s 1.5-degree target and numerous climate plans in both politics and business are premised on this main scenario.

In reality, the window may be as few as five years – and that’s not just for climate, but for the majority of the nine Planetary Boundaries, says Johan Rockström, director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK). He has been one of the initiators of the planetary boundaries framework, which is becoming the standard in the international scientific community for analyzing the state of our entire planet.

“Research on planetary boundaries has developed exponentially since we launched the concept fifteen years ago, and there are now over 1500 published scientific papers on them. According to a review in the journal Nature, several of those papers are among the most cited in the scientific community,” says Johan Rockström, adding:

“In science, planetary boundaries are mainstream today. Now we need to make politicians and other decision-makers understand the urgency of the situation.”

Six of nine planetary boundaries have been exceeded

In September, the latest major initiative of PIK and its partners was presented: The Planetary Health Check 2024, a scientific report on the current state of the nine areas covered by the planetary boundaries (see box). When the results are summarized, the message is alarming:

“Earth exceeds safe limits: First Planetary Health Check issues red alert.”

Six out of nine planetary boundaries have been exceeded and the planet as a whole has left “Safe operating space,” is now in the “Increasing risk zone” and is rapidly approaching the “High-risk zone.”

Johan Rockström clarifies what is meant by “Safe operating space”:

“Some climate sceptics say ‘the climate has always varied.’ But they forget that for the past 10 000 years, the Earth has been in an incredibly favorable period that can be called ‘the corridor of life.’ It is this period that has set the stage for our entire civilization – and it could soon be over if we don’t create a radical, global change.”

The scientists behind the Planetary Health Check agree that the next 25 years are crucial for humanity – and the planet. But so far, there are no clear signs of a turn for the better in any of the nine planetary boundaries. On the contrary, the curves continue upwards, towards increasingly risky levels.

“Within five years, several critical curves must turn downwards. Otherwise, we risk reaching ‘tipping points’ when it may be too late to reverse the trend.”

Low crisis awareness despite record heat and more hurricanes

In addition to participating in numerous research collaborations and advisory committees, Johan Rockström is also one of the initiators of the informal network Tarfala Think Tank, where Suston regularly participates as media representative. At the annual meetings held in Sweden or Norway, presentations of research, workshops and discussions are interspersed with summit tours in the surrounding mountains.

Johan Rockström himself is an avid backcountry skier. The days in the mountains provide a much-needed break from the intense work of trying to communicate the seriousness of the situation to decision-makers, the media and the public, year after year.

“Of course I am frustrated. The conditions to reverse the trend exist! We scientists have created a functioning framework and are speaking in much clearer language than before. The international climate agreements are in place. There are scalable solutions in several areas. Large parts of the business community want to move in the right direction. There is growing concern among people, who see with their own eyes that something is not right in nature. Now we need to act decisively before it is too late.”

Johan Rockström sees the EU as a positive force, in a global perspective, and believes that the transition in Europe has come too far to be held back by reactionary forces. But even in Europe, there is still a lot of work to be done to maintain positive public opinion, says Rockström, and gives an example from his home country, Sweden.

“I have tried to warn the Swedish government about what will happen if the path of the Gulf Stream changes. Sweden’s average temperature risks falling by twenty degrees, so that our entire modern society will be destroyed. So far, no politician has reacted.”

“It is often said that the COVID-19 pandemic showed how quickly and powerfully society can adapt to a major external crisis. In many countries, governments created national crisis teams that reported and made decisions on a daily basis, working with other nations. We need to realize that this is where we are today – not in twenty-five years.”

 

Read this Suston article to learn more about Planetary Boundaries.

 

 

Lead Graphic: Planetary Health Check Report 2024