Outdoor participation in the US hit a record 183.2 million people in 2025, but growth is slowing, according to new data from the Outdoor Industry Association (OIA). Suston spoke with Kelly Davis, who leads OIA’s research, about what’s really behind the numbers.

The Outdoor Industry Association (OIA) has tracked how Americans spend time outdoors since 2007. Its annual Outdoor Participation Trends Report now covers 117 different physical activities, from hiking and camping to team sports, and accounts for participants who cross over between multiple activities in a given year. In other words, it is the definitive information source for any outdoor brand with a stake in the North American market.

Suston reached out to Kelly Davis, who leads the report’s research at OIA, to dig deeper into three key trends emerging from this year’s data: slowing growth despite record participation, a more diverse participant base, and a pullback among the industry’s core users and youngest adults.

Trend 1: Record outdoor participation, but growth is slowing

Total outdoor participation has grown from about 150 million people in 2019 to 183.2 million in 2025, according to the report. Yet while the three-year average annual growth rate has been 2.9 percent, growth from 2024-2025 dropped to just 1.1%. Does this mean that the pandemic-era boom is finally over, or could other forces be pulling growth down? Perhaps, but Davis points to another factor as a more likely explanation:

“We’re at about what, a 60 percent participation rate? We might be close to saturation,” she speculates.

“I think we could get to maybe 67 per cent. But that’s kind of where it stops. The people that are able to participate, are already participating.”

She likens this situation to relativistic mass in physics: as an object approaches the speed of light, the energy needed to push its velocity even slightly higher rises toward infinity.

“We could put in the monumental effort and get that last 7 per cent – but then again, perhaps we could spend that energy better elsewhere.”

Like integrating the 30 million that discovered outdoor activities since 2019. Davis notes that rather than doubling-down on including these newcomers, much of the industry is continuing with the status quo and as if this has no effect on the previously existing community.

Fortunately, what the data does not show, she says, is those 30 million leaving.

“Back in 2020, when nobody could get a parking spot at the trailhead, there was this idea that it was a spike that would eventually have to come back down. But we still haven’t seen this 30 million that came, leave. And the truth is, this group changes everything.”

Opening up the spreadsheets, Davis is able to point out that, year-on-year, the data shows clear incremental growth since the pandemic boom, only now from a much-higher baseline.

“We definitely churn, roughly 25 million in and out, in and out,” she says.

“But overall, it just keeps growing.”

Trend 2: Core users and Gen Z are in decline

This growth is not seen across all user groups, however, with data showing a significant decline in two large segments: the industry’s traditional “core” customers and its youngest adults.

A shrinking “core”

The report defines “core” participants as those engaging in a particular activity most frequently, at thresholds set back in 2007. By that measure, Davis says she is seeing a significant decline in the number of consumers that would be considered core.

“At the very top of the frequency distribution, people who participate 260 times or more a year, that stays pretty stable,” she says.

“But we are losing frequency in the group doing something like 51 to 259 activities a year. And I think that’s related to a decline in participation in young adults, which I think is highly related to economic pressure.”

Asked whether she has seen data to support this, Davis suggests that several sources – such as retail, consumer sentiment, foreclosures, wage and employment data – all converge around the same picture:

“Food prices are up about 40 percent in the past five years. Transportation costs are up about 40 percent over the past five years. Same thing with housing, and even more acute in insurance. These are requisite needs, and wages have not kept up.”

Gen Z pulling back?

Beyond the “core” users, what about the decline in Gen Z participation? Has the generation raised in social media failed to move from the digital world and into IRL? Asked directly about the age group in greatest decline, Davis does not hedge:

“We could muse about screen time and all of that. But my job is to say what I’m seeing in the data. And while I don’t have causation, what I do see is that the economic pressures for this group are absolutely crushing.”

She sees Gen Z-ers as being especially exposed on the job market, in part due to AI taking the place of a lot of entry-level positions.

“If you’re between eighteen to thirty-four, it’s simple: You just don’t have any money. You’re broke. And if you can’t afford your day-to-day life, what disposable income do you have left to invest on outdoor gear and adventures?”

Trend 2: A broader base of participants

Yet this decline of core and Gen Z users was more than made up for by groups that have historically made up a smaller share of outdoor participants. These represent a growing participant base that Davis describes as far more diverse than previous years.

Women participation on the rise

Women’s participation rate, for example, has steadily climbed to a record 53.4 percent in 2025. When asked whether that growth is durable, Davis ties it to what women say they get out of being outside.

“When we ask women about what they’re getting out of the outdoor experience, I ask about affect. What emotions are you chasing? Happiness is always number one, with calm and balance a close second. Women are discovering that outdoors is a great place to just find a little bit of humanity and peace, in a world where you’re just constantly being barraged by information.”

Growth here is incremental, however, and Davis points out that safety concerns continue to hold many back.

“Safety for women is always going to be a problem. But in the end, it is a societal problem, and one we must solve,” she says, and then deadpans:

“Sometimes it will take some bravery on the part of women. I’ve acquired some good knife-fighting skills – I haven’t always worked at a niche research shop, you know.”

Hispanic community booming

Hispanic participation, meanwhile, has grown faster than any other group Davis discussed.

“In 2007, Hispanic persons made up just under 5 percent of the total participant base, and in 2025 we’re up to 15.3,” she says, before continuing:

“I see the Hispanic people as a driver of outdoor recreation. It is awesome.”

“If you think about outdoor activities that you can do in larger groups and community groups, our Hispanic participants are absolutely dominating that type of activity.”

Asked what is behind the growth, and whether it reflects rising economic standing rather than anything the industry itself has done, Davis challenges us to look less to industry effort and socio-economic data and instead to the activity itself.

“I could speculate, but maybe it is as simple as ‘it’s super fun to hang out outdoors’,” she says.

Black participants see modest gains

Black community participation rates also grew this year, though less sharply. On this finding, Davis is careful to separate the pace of growth from what remains in the way.

“Despite steady growth, I think persistent traditional barriers to access in Black participants’ communities continue to hold many back,” she says.

“We’re working hard to break down those barriers and solve those problems. But we are seeing some resurgence in openly racist attitudes in this country right now. So, when I saw just 1.1 percent growth in 2025, I wasn’t surprised to see that growth slowed a little bit for that community.”

Diversity in focus

To what degree has the outdoor industry’s own efforts driven the gains among women, Hispanic and Black participants, versus simply riding a wave already underway? Davis suggests the industry deserves some of the credit.

“There’s been a ton of work going on in diversity,” she says, before continuing wryly:

“At least until roughly January 2025 when DEI took a bit of a nosedive, right?”

But even as the broader corporate landscape has since begun moving the other way, Davis sees that the earlier efforts are now beginning to pay dividends.

“I think one of the things that I’m seeing is a more diversified outdoor workforce, which is helpful,” she says.

“One of the persistent blind spots in outdoor has been that a lot of brands were run by old core white people.”

What the industry has historically built, she says, reflects who has historically built it: products and services designed around a narrow slice of intense, high-spending core users, on the assumption that everybody aspires to be one.

“We haven’t traditionally considered the person that hikes four or five times a year as incredibly important to outdoor,” she says.

“But we should, because there’s just so many of them.”

And that is probably the most important take-away from this report. Record participation this year was not driven by more of the same customers going outside more often. It was driven by a wider range of people going outside at all, against a current of young adults and once-loyal core users pulling back. According to Davis, industry, people and planet have everything to gain from these newcomers:

“Focusing on diversity is very, very important because it expands our participant base. It expands support for public lands, it expands bottom lines,” she says before concluding:

“And quite frankly, it’s just the right thing to do.”